System Dynamics Model of Technology Transition under Resource Constraints A Catfish Farming Case
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Background. This study deals with a System Dynamics (SD) model to investigate technology transition under resource constraints, using small-scale catfish farming as a case study. In this context, land availability constitutes the resource constraint. To address this constraint, it is necessary to achieve catfish productivity gains through technological intensification, such as the use of aquaponics.
Methods. The SD model captures feedback interactions among production, operating costs, revenue, profit, and reinvestment by setting aside a portion of profits. The SD model's behavior is analyzed by generating six scenarios over 25 years to examine the effects of feed price fluctuations, fingerling price fluctuations, and alternative reinvestment rates. Model outcomes were evaluated using production, profitability, and the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) as an economic performance indicator.
Result. The results show that feed and fingerling price fluctuation exerts a strong negative effect on profitability and economic feasibility, while higher reinvestment rates accelerate aquaponics adoption and improve long-term performance.
Conclusion. BCR analysis indicates that technology transition in land-limited catfish farming is feasible only when BCR remains above unity, supporting sustained reinvestment.
Implementation. The study highlights the importance of reinvestment strategies and feed and fingerling costs management in enabling resilient technological upgrading in spatially constrained aquaculture systems.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Avery, J. L. (n.d.). Production Process for channel catfish. Mississippi State University. http://extension.msstate.edu/content/production-process-for-channel-catfish
Belton, B., Bush, S. R., & Little, D. (2018). Not just for the wealthy: Rethinking farmed fish consumption in the Global South. Global Food Security, 16, 85–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.10.005
Benjamin, E. O., Buchenrieder, G. R., & Sauer, J. (2020). Economics of small-scale aquaponics system in West Africa: A SANFU case study. Aquaculture Economics and Management, 0(0), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2020.1793823
Bosma, R. H., Lacambra, L., Landstra, Y., Perini, C., Poulie, J., Schwaner, M. J., & Yin, Y. (2017). The financial feasibility of producing fish and vegetables through aquaponics. Aquacultural Engineering, 78(May 2018), 146–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaeng.2017.07.002
Cao Thi, T.-X. (2025). Cost-benefit analysis: utilizing mathematics to optimize economic project decisions. HPU2 Journal of Sciences: Natural Sciences and Technology, 04, 48–59. https://doi.org/10.56764/hpu2.jos.2024.4.1.48-59
Engle, C. R., & Stone, N. (2014). Cost of Small-scale Catfish Production for Direct Sales. In Southern Regional Aquaculture Center (Vol. 1800).
English, L. (2015). Economic Feasibility of Aquaponics in Arkansas. ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, December, 96. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3672.8407
FAO. (2020). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture: Sustainability in Action. In INFORM (Issue 6). https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9229en
Forrester, J. W. (1994). System dynamics, systems thinking, and soft OR. System Dynamics Review, 10(2–3), 245–256. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.4260100211
Goddek, S., Joyce, A., Kotzen, B., & Burnell, G. M. (2019). Aquaponics Food Production Systems: Combined Aquaculture and Hydroponic Production Technologies for the Future. In S. Goddek, A. Joyce, B. Kotzen, & G. M. Burnell (Eds.), Aquaponics Food Production Systems (1st ed.). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15943-6
Graber, A., & Junge, R. (2009). Aquaponic Systems: Nutrient recycling from fish wastewater by vegetable production. Desalination, 246(1–3), 147–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2008.03.048
Hasan, M. R., & New, M. B. (2013). On-farm feeding and feed management in aquaculture (M. R. Hasan & M. B. New, Eds.). Food And Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Isa, S. H., Ramlee, M. N. A., Lola, M. S., Ikhwanuddin, M., Azra, M. N., Abdullah, M. T., Zakaria, S., & Ibrahim, Y. (2021). A system dynamics model for analysing the eco-aquaculture system of the integrated aquaculture park in Malaysia with policy recommendations. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23, 511–533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00594-4
Jiménez-Montealegre, R., Verdegem, M. C. J., Van Dam, A., & Verreth, J. A. J. (2002). Conceptualization and validation of a dynamic model for the simulation of nitrogen transformations and fluxes in fish ponds. Ecological Modelling, 147(2), 123–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00403-3
John D. Sterman. (2000). Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill Companies.
Kumar, G., Byars, T. S., Greenway, T. E., Aarattuthodiyil, S., Khoo, L. H., Griffin, M. J., & Wise, D. J. (2019). Economic assessment of commercial-scale Edwardsiella ictaluri vaccine trials in U.S. catfish industry. Aquaculture Economics and Management, 23(3), 254–275. https://doi.org/10.1080/13657305.2019.1632392
Kumar, G., & Engle, C. R. (2016). Technological Advances that Led to Growth of Shrimp, Salmon, and Tilapia Farming. Reviews in Fisheries Science and Aquaculture, 24, 136–152. https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2015.1112357
Kyaw, T. Y., & Ng, A. K. (2017). Smart Aquaponics System for Urban Farming. Energy Procedia, 143, 342–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.694
Lapere, P. (2010). A Techno-Economic Feasibility Study into Aquaponics in South Africa by In Master Thesis. Stellenbosch University.
Li, F. J., Dong, S. C., & Li, F. (2012). A system dynamics model for analyzing the eco-agriculture system with policy recommendations. Ecological Modelling, 227, 34–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.005
Love, D. C., Fry, J. P., Li, X., Hill, E. S., Genello, L., Semmens, K., & Thompson, R. E. (2015). Commercial aquaponics production and profitability: Findings from an international survey. Aquaculture, 435, 67–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2014.09.023
Martin, A. D. (2017). Technical and economical study of aquaponics feasibility in northern Finland. University of OULU.
Moallemi, E. A., Bertone, E., Eker, S., Gao, L., Szetey, K., Taylor, N., & Bryan, B. A. (2021). A review of systems modelling for local sustainability. In Environmental Research Letters (Vol. 16, Issue 113004). IOP Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f62
Prasetyaningsih, E., Renosori, P., Selamat, Putri, F. M., Putri, C. R., & Avrilio, N. F. (2020). Conceptual model of System Dynamics for increasing catfish productivity using Recirculation Aquaculture Systems. Sciences and Technology Research Symposium, (in press).
Quagrainie, K. K., Flores, R. M. V., Kim, H. J., & McClain, V. (2017). Economic analysis of aquaponics and hydroponics production in the U.S. Midwest. Journal of Applied Aquaculture, 30(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/10454438.2017.1414009
Queenan, K., Slotow, R., Sobratee, N., Davids, R., Mabhaudhi, T., Chimonyo, M., Shankar, B., & Häsler, B. (2020). A systems analysis and conceptual system dynamics model of the livestock-derived food system in South Africa: A tool for policy guidance. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 9(4), 275–298. https://doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2020.094.021
Reyes Lastiri, D., Geelen, C., Cappon, H. J., Rijnaarts, H. H. M., Baganz, D., Kloas, W., Karimanzira, D., & Keesman, K. J. (2018). Model-based management strategy for resource efficient design and operation of an aquaponic system. Aquacultural Engineering, 83, 27–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaeng.2018.07.001
Sterman, J. (2018). System dynamics at sixty: the path forward. System Dynamics Review, 34(1–2), 5–47. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1601
Sundari, R. S., Arshad, A., Sulistyowati, L., Noor, T. I., & Setiawan, I. (2020). Enhancing Food Security throughout Aquaponicsin Urban Farming Development Strategy. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1764(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1764/1/012209
Tacon, A. G. J., & Metian, M. (2015). Feed matters: Satisfying the feed demand of aquaculture. Reviews in Fisheries Science and Aquaculture, 23(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2014.987209
Tokunaga, K., Tamaru, C., Ako, H., & Leung, P. (2015). Economics of small-scale commercial aquaponics in Hawai’i. Journal of the World Aquaculture Society, 46(1), 20–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/jwas.12173
Tyson, R. V, Treadwell, D. D., & Simonne, E. H. (2011). Opportunities and Challenges to Sustainability in Aquaponic Systems. Hort Technology, 1–3. https://journals.ashs.org