Mathematical Analysis of Overtourism and Carrying Capacity in Bali Tourism Using a Logistics Growth Model
Main Article Content
Abstract
Background. The growth of tourism in Bali has become a complex and multidimensional phenomenon, where the increase in tourist numbers has a significant economic impact but also triggers environmental, social, and cultural pressures. Overtourism occurs when the number of tourists exceeds a destination's carrying capacity, creating an imbalance in the system. Empirical studies show that the post-pandemic surge in tourism has a positive economic impact but also increases pressure on the environment and infrastructure.
Aims. This research develops a dynamic logistics growth-based mathematical model to explain the relationship between the number of tourists and the capacity to accommodate in Bali's tourism system. The model is formulated as a nonlinear differential system in which capacity is treated as a time variable.
Results. The results of the analysis show that carrying capacity is dynamic and degrades as tourist pressure accumulates.
Conclusion. This study introduces the concept of effective capacity and shows that overtourism is an endogenous phenomenon in the tourism system.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Butler, R. W. (1980). The concept of a tourist area's cycle of evolution: Implications for resource management. Canadian Geographer, 24(1), 5–12.
Cole, S. (2012). A political ecology of water equity and tourism: A case study from Bali. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(2), 1221–1241.
Dodds, R., & Butler, R. (2019). Overtourism: Issues, realities and solutions. Berlin: The Gruyter
Gössling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C. M. (2018). Overtourism: A growing global problem. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(8), 1–18.
Milano, C. (2018). Overtourism, tourismphobia, and global trends. Tourism Planning & Development, 15(4), 353–357.
Pratama, R. (2025). The impact of overtourism on the environmental degradation of tourist destinations. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 7(2), 45–58.
Rahmad, M. (2026). Overtourism and its implications for tourism sustainability. Journal of Tourism Development, 9(1), 33–47.
Suyadnya, I. (2021). Tourism gentrification in Bali. Journal of Tourism Studies.
United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2019). Overtourism? Understanding and managing urban tourism growth beyond perceptions. Madrid: UNWTO.
Utama, I. G. B. R. (2024). Analysis of overtourism in Bali tourism. Indonesian Journal of Tourism Sciences, 12(1), 10–25.